AMRO maintains 2024-25 growth forecasts at 4.4% and 4.3%, driven by exports, domestic demand, tourism recovery. U.S. risks and geopolitical tensions are potential challenges, emphasizing need for policy measures.
Key Takeaways
The ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent, supported by favorable export prospects, robust domestic demand, and a recovering tourism sector. Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region is expected to moderate to 2.1 percent in 2024, with downside risks related to geopolitical tensions and U.S.-related factors. The outcome of the U.S. elections could significantly impact the region’s outlook for 2025, emphasizing the need for policy measures to enhance resilience to potential shocks.
AMRO Maintains 2024-25 Growth Projections
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has sustained its 2024–25 growth forecasts for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) suggests favorable export prospects will amplify the region’s growth momentum. Additionally, strong domestic demand and a robust recovery in tourism are expected to play pivotal roles in sustaining economic growth.
Steady Growth and Positive Outlook for 2024
In 2024, the ASEAN+3 region anticipates steady growth at a rate of 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecasted in April. Factors such as strong employment conditions, stable prices, and improving global demand are expected to bolster domestic demand and export growth. Specifically, ASEAN is projected to see an increase from 4.2% in 2023 to 4.8%, while growth for China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea is expected to stabilize at 4.4%. Predictions indicate a slight easing to 4.3% growth in 2025 as economies merge towards their trend growth rates.
Source : ASEAN+3 growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 % and 4.3 % (AMRO)