Conflict between ethnic rebels and junta troops in Myanmar’s Shan state has halted border trade with China, causing an estimated US$500 million in commerce loss. Fighting continues.
**Impact of Ethnic Rebels Offensive on Myanmar-China Border Trade**
Trade across Myanmar’s shared border with China came to a standstill due to the ongoing offensive by ethnic rebels fighting junta troops in the country’s Shan state. The offensive, launched by the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, named “Operation 1027” as part of the “Three Brotherhood Alliance,” has caused an estimated loss of over US$500 million in commerce. Since the rebels started this offensive, junta troops have been on the retreat in many areas, leading junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing to issue a rare acknowledgment of the rebel’s successes.
**Trade Cessation at Key Border Towns**
The fighting brought an end to trade at Muse and Chinshwehaw, considered crucial border towns opposite China’s Yunnan province. Prior to the offensive, the value of bilateral trade at the two border towns was over US$10 million per day, as per information from the junta’s Ministry of Commerce data. Consequently, the 50-day period since the start of the offensive has resulted in more than US$500 million in losses.
**Challenges and the Current Situation**
The offensive has had a significant impact on both merchants and farmers, with reports suggesting that at least 10 civilians, including children, have lost their lives. The cost of transporting goods has increased during the conflict, and merchants have reported that commodities are stranded at the border gate in Chinshwehaw. The spokesperson of the MNDAA believes that restoring bilateral trade in northern Shan state anytime soon is simply not possible.
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