Consumer spending in Hong Kong, China is expected to slow down but remain positive in 2024. Base effects from border reopenings will stabilize spending growth over the medium term. Inflation, labor market, and debt servicing will also contribute to a positive outlook.
Key View: Despite a forecasted deceleration, we hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Hong Kong, China over 2024. As base effects, which arose from the full reopening of borders with Mainland China as well as the wider international tourism market, begin to wear off consumer spending growth will follow a more stable trajectory over the medium term (2024-2028). Moderate inflation and a solid labour market will provide upsides, while the easing cost of debt servicing and Hong Kong dollar consistency further support our positive view.
Source : Hong Kong, China Consumer Outlook: Continuous Strong Showings In Retail Sales