Moody’s Investors Service says in a new report that the aggregate EBITDA of Asian refiners will decline by around 30%
- Aggregate EBITDA will decline around 30% in 2020 on steep inventory losses and weak margins
- A gradual economic recovery will improve margins in 2021, but risks are tilted to the downside
“EBITDA and margin will improve in 2021 as a gradual economic recovery results in higher refining margins and the absence of inventory losses leads to higher earnings. But risks to margin recovery are firmly tilted to the downside.”
Hui Ting Sim, a Moody’s Analyst.
“Margin recovery will be delayed if a resurgence in infections leads to renewed lockdowns. We’re also seeing higher market imbalance, with a surge in refining capacity continuing through 2022 driven by investments in Asia and the Middle East, which will further weigh on the extent of margin recovery,” adds Sim.
Among rated Asian refiners, some are better positioned than others to withstand weaker-than-expected refining margins. Moody’s expects ENEOS will be best positioned to maintain its credit quality, whereas…
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